Title Race: Coventry's Crown Slips Slightly
Coventry have been magnificent for most of this season, but something has shifted in recent weeks. Twenty-seven wins from forty-five matches is elite stuff. That goal difference of plus forty-eight tells you they've been dominant when it matters. Yet that recent form reads WWDDD. Two wins, three draws. That's not the ruthless machine that built an eleven-point lead.
Eleven points is still a proper cushion with one match remaining, but it's hardly the coronation everyone expected a few weeks ago. Ipswich are circling, having kept themselves very much in contention. Twenty-two wins, fifteen draws suggests they've been remarkably consistent without ever quite hitting top gear. Their form is murkier though: DDWDL. That loss is a worry when you're hunting the leaders.
Millwall sit third on eighty points but their spread of results (DWWDL) suggests inconsistency. Middlesbrough are breathing down their necks at seventy-nine points, and they've actually looked more purposeful lately with WWDLD. The real story here is that Coventry have slightly loosened their grip just when they should be accelerating toward promotion.
Top Four Battle: Southampton's Late Charge Is Proper Thrilling
If there's an enthralling subplot running through this season's run-in, it's Southampton arriving at the party precisely when it matters. Fifth place, seventy-seven points, and form of DDWWW. Those last three consecutive wins have completely altered their trajectory. They're just two points adrift of Middlesbrough and look genuinely capable of muscling into the automatic spots.
Middlesbrough, meanwhile, have arrested their wobble with back-to-back victories. They sit fourth on seventy-nine points and appear the most settled of this group. Ipswich at eighty-one remain the most obvious challengers to Coventry but lack the cutting edge their position suggests they should have.
Millwall are the wildcard. Third place looks good on paper, but that goal difference of plus thirteen is distinctly pedestrian for someone that high up the table. They're winning ugly rather than winning convincingly, and that often doesn't end well when the pressure intensifies.
What's remarkable is how compressed this is. Coventry to Middlesbrough spans thirteen points across four clubs. One collapse, one sudden improvement, and the entire picture reshuffles.
Relegation Watch: Eight Teams in a Scrap
This is an absolutely brutal fight. Oxford United sit twenty-second on forty-seven points, just four clear of the drop. That's terrifyingly tight. Leicester, West Brom, and Blackburn are all within spitting distance, separated by single digits. Sheffield Utd, Watford, Stoke City, and Portsmouth all have seventy-five games behind them and still look vulnerable.
Portsmouth are the peculiar case. Fifty-four points puts them nineteenth, but form of WLWWW is genuinely encouraging. Three wins in their last five has given them genuine hope. Derby at sixty-nine points look safer than their position might suggest, with a WLWLW pattern showing they can win away from home.
Then there's Sheffield Wednesday. Dear God, Sheffield Wednesday. One win from forty-five matches. One. A goal difference of minus sixty-one is incomprehensible. Minus sixty-one. That's not a relegation battle; that's a statistical disaster. They're already down in terms of points deficit, and this isn't even League Two. Their final match is a formality.
For the clubs actually fighting it, four points separating seventh-placed from twenty-second is genuinely alarming. Wrexham and Hull City both on seventy points look relatively secure but shouldn't be complacent. One bad run and they're sucked into the vortex.
Looking Ahead: One Match That Changes Everything
With just one match remaining for everyone, there's limited movement possible. But that one match will be absolutely pivotal. Coventry absolutely must take three points to seal automatic promotion. An Ipswich victory combined with a Coventry draw or loss would thrust genuine uncertainty into the final reckoning.
For the bottom half, every single point matters. Oxford United cannot afford a defeat when so many teams are hunting the same spots. Portsmouth need to maintain that winning momentum. Leicester and West Brom will be desperately hoping the teams above them slip up.
The tension in the bottom three quarters of this table is suffocating. Coventry have cruised home on a cushion that's slowly deflating, but they look safe enough. Everyone else is fighting for scraps, legitimately fighting. That final match will hurt someone badly and save someone else's season. Championship football at its most brutal and unforgiving.
