Pre-Match Commentary

Nottingham Forest sit 16th with a cushion above the drop zone, but their form has turned sketchy. One win in five and they're leaking goals at home, conceding 20 in 16 matches at the City Ground. Burnley, though, are genuinely in trouble. Nineteen points from 32 games and a goal difference of minus 30 means they're being picked apart every week. They've won once in their last five and conceded 11 goals in that stretch.

Forest's home record gives them the edge here despite the shaky form. Burnley have won just twice on the road all season and that alarming defensive record away from home (38 goals conceded in 16) screams vulnerability. The pair drew when they met earlier in the season, and there's history of tight matches between them. Forest are clear favourites to take this.

One win pulls Forest towards mid-table safety properly. For Burnley, anything less than three points deepens the hole they're in with serious distance to make up on safety.